A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with even the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
