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Elections are now in progress for parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, though analysts believe the party stands little chance of being part of the future coalition.

Survey Results and Election Dynamics

Wilders' party, which in the last election pulled off a surprise top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that collapsed within a year, is now marginally ahead in the polls and is projected to secure between 24 to 28 MPs in the 150-seat house of representatives.

However, the far-right party's support has declined since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the outgoing coalition in the summer amid disagreements concerning his controversial immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on issues such as immigration, medical expenses, and the nation's acute housing crisis, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to gain between 22 to 26 seats.

Also performing well is the centrist Democrats 66, predicted to boost its representation by almost five times to 21-25 seats, while the right-leaning CDA is expected to more than double its seat tally to between 18 and 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – which included the Freedom Party, VVD, BBB, and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with some facing heavy losses.

Voting Process and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, gaining just less than one percent of the national vote earns a party a seat in parliament. Of the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, basic income advocates, and for sport – up to 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This significant fragmentation ensures that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by multi-party governments – often including four parties in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "the democratic process would end" in the Netherlands if the PVV becomes the largest party yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts argue that winning the most seats does not assure government participation and that any coalition with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is uncertain and government negotiations could take several months, political observers indicate that following the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is likely to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, such as those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in the capital city, opened at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9pm. A typically reliable exit poll is anticipated soon after closing time.

After the vote, an informateur will test potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the coming term and must undergo a vote of confidence in parliament before assuming power.